Facing Modi's New Test

For over a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have held power in India. Throughout this time, they have claimed to represent a "New India," stating that in this new version, there is no place for nepotism or corruption, unlike what they allege is present in opposition parties.

However, on Wednesday morning (June 5), the world's largest democracy witnessed a different "New India." The BJP saw a significant drop in its longstanding majority, losing ground they had maintained for the past decade. While the recent election dealt a blow to one side, creating a sense of political uncertainty, it also presented challenges in forming a government.

Before this, Modi had not needed to rely on coalition partners to form a government. However, this time around, there is a political uncertainty, where Modi might have to seek refuge in the alliance of coalition partners if he fails to secure the magic figure required to form a government (272 seats out of Lok Sabha's 543 seats).

Following the final phase of voting on Saturday (June 1), where most exit polls hinted at victories for the BJP and its ally NDA, Tuesday’s counting day took India's coalition, the NDA, to a decisive win of 232 seats in the Lok Sabha. On the other hand, the BJP emerged as the largest party in India with 240 seats. Yet, this falls short of the necessary majority.

After the election results were announced on Wednesday (May 5), leaders of the BJP and the main opposition party Congress, under the leadership of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Narendra Modi, and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) met in New Delhi to plan their next steps.

On the same day, regional parties like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar pledged their support to Modi and the BJP to form a coalition government. 

Moreover, Modi has been elected as the consensus candidate for the NDA. With the NDA alliance winning a total of 293 seats, the formation of the government seems quite imminent now.

However, a crucial question looms over the discussion on government formation – will Modi, known for his firm centralist approach, be able to lead a coalition smoothly if it comes to power?

Analysts and political observers suggest that answering this question now would be challenging. Nilanjan Sarkar from the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) in New Delhi says, "It's still uncertain. Modi is a familiar leader who is used to working with absolute central power."

Modi Faces a New Test

On the evening of May 4, amidst the announcement of the official election results by the Election Commission, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed party workers and supporters at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. During his speech, he credited JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar for securing a big victory for the ruling coalition in Bihar. The JD(U) won 12 seats.

Historically, Modi and Nitish Kumar have had a relationship marked by ups and downs. Their alliance has often been on and off. Similar dynamics have been seen with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which has allied with both the BJP and the opposition Congress at various times.

However, while the BJP engages in politics centered around Hindutva and often religion-based, both JD(U) and TDP claim to be secular, relying on Muslim voters' support and maintaining a distance from BJP's Hindu-majority politics. TDP has secured 16 seats this time.

Together, JD(U) and TDP hold a total of 28 seats. The Indian Alliance is making efforts to bring these two parties into their fold. According to Indian newspapers, senior leader Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been tasked with this responsibility.

If the Indian Alliance succeeds in attracting these two parties, Modi's NDA coalition's total seat count would decrease from 293 to 265, rendering the NDA unable to form a government. This would increase the Indian Alliance's seat count to 268, leaving them only four seats short of the 272 needed to form a government. They could then potentially form a government by securing these four seats from smaller parties.

Thus, the Indian political landscape post-election sees much discussion around Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. They are considered kingmakers, with the power to decide which direction the government will take. However, the BJP has claimed that both leaders have given written assurances of their continued support for the NDA.

Analysts suggest that the BJP has successfully portrayed Modi as a strong, decisive leader who does not let politics sway him from his core principles. This was possible because Modi has never had to govern without a clear majority.

Modi first gained national recognition when he became the Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2001, a position he held for 13 years before becoming Prime Minister. Modi has enjoyed significant majorities in Gujarat and at the national level, and this continues to be the case.

However, the recent Lok Sabha election results have delivered a significant blow to "Brand Modi." Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai asserts that the results necessitate 'coalition politics' for Modi, taking India back to the pre-2014 era when coalition governments were the norm.

Kidwai comments, "This will be difficult for Modi because partners will always have some important position expectations." Hence, under a coalition government, Modi's negotiating skills will face a new test. He adds that these expectations might include demands for the Speaker's position in Parliament.

 
Even though the speaker largely plays a ceremonial role in the parliament, the position becomes quite significant if members of the parliament want to break away from their party. The speaker can decide on the legality of such attempts. Allegations have emerged in the past of dividing opponents like the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party against BJP in Maharashtra.

Friends will vie for important positions in the cabinet. In that case, "Playing the game will keep friends happy and relinquish some important ministerial positions," as Nilanjan Sarkar of the CPI(M) government stated. However, if Modi wants to maintain an effective coalition, he must overcome such demands from his partners, according to Modi's biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.

Mukhopadhyay said, "There is no alternative for Modi. If he wants to continue governing as he has for the past 10 years, he must let go of power. He further said, Modi must bring an inner personality that is humble and open to working with others. This is a side of him we have never seen."

Sources: Al Jazeera and BBC.