Modi's Third Term: Global Implications

Narendra Modi has taken the oath as Prime Minister of India for the third time, an unprecedented event in the country's history. Under his leadership, India has emerged as a crucial player in global issues such as climate change and development. Additionally, India is becoming a key partner for the United States in security matters, and it is playing a significant role in leading the Global South.

Modi has elevated India's stature on the global stage more than any recent leader of the world's most populous country. With his re-election, the 73-year-old BJP leader has another five years to advance India's international influence, while also addressing challenges posed by neighboring nuclear powers China and Pakistan.

However, the political landscape has shifted, making this term more challenging for Modi and his party. Unlike previous terms, the BJP cannot form a government independently and must rely on its coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

This situation presents new challenges for Modi and his party, which have faced criticism for Islamophobia and religious conflicts, as well as for issues like unemployment. According to T.V. Paul, author of "The Unfinished Quest: India Searches for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi," Modi will need to focus more on internal issues to sustain his government.

Modi's re-election is unlikely to alter the strong relationship between New Delhi and Washington. This partnership has been instrumental in elevating Modi's stature globally. India has emerged as a major security partner for the U.S., particularly within the Quad alliance, which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia, aimed at countering Chinese threats.

Following Modi's victory, U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated him and praised the friendly relations between the two nations. Analysts believe that this relationship will likely strengthen further.

Farwa Aamer, director of the South Asia Initiative at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, noted that both countries share similar concerns about regional stability and are working on increasing defense cooperation. She expects India to work closely with the U.S. on Indo-Pacific interests and expand technological collaboration.

Despite the strong ties with Washington, Modi has maintained relationships that sometimes diverge from U.S. interests. For instance, despite Western pressure, India has continued its ties with Russia even after the Ukraine invasion.

Domestically, Modi's government has faced significant allegations of repression against opposition parties and the marginalization of Muslims, raising concerns in the U.S. How Modi handles these issues in his third term will be closely watched.

Internationally, India's actions under Modi have sometimes sparked controversy. Notably, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently accused India of involvement in the killing of a Sikh leader, an allegation that led to a sharp response from India. Similar accusations have also emerged from the U.S., which India has denied, with both the U.S. and Canada stating they will investigate.

Over the past decade, the BJP has not only played a significant role domestically but also exerted influence regionally, especially concerning Pakistan. While Modi previously made unilateral decisions, he now needs coalition approval, which might temper the BJP's Hindu nationalist agenda due to a stronger opposition coalition.

Analysts predict that despite a potentially weaker position, Modi will likely maintain his stance on China and Pakistan. He is expected to avoid direct conflict with these neighboring powers, as seen after the 2020 border clashes with China, which drew criticism for his handling of the situation.

Global leaders and policymakers will be observing India's responses to issues involving China and Pakistan. Some believe that the election results, though disappointing for Modi, could benefit India as a whole. T.V. Paul suggests that without a clear majority, Modi may avoid focusing solely on a Hindu agenda, which could obscure broader international issues.

Paul emphasizes that India's return to democratic processes will enhance its global reputation. Ultimately, the global impact will depend on how Modi navigates his role in the coming years.

Source: CNN