Election Disarray: Modi's Misstep?

Over the past decade, Narendra Modi's BJP has been expanding its influence in Indian politics. Many believed the party would maintain its position. Even the exit polls indicated so. But Tuesday (June 4) brought a major setback for the ruling camp.

According to BBC, until 8 p.m., it seems unlikely that the BJP can form a government alone. The party may have to rely on allies to form the government. But how will this coalition happen? Analysts attribute this to the current economic slowdown, unemployment, contentious military recruitment reforms, and Modi's aggressive and divisive campaign.

The BBC reports that these anxieties were evident even in pre-election surveys.

On the campaign trail, Modi's slogan was "Ab ki baar, 400 paar" (This time, above 400). But that hope has dwindled. As soon as the vote count began, the equations started changing. Despite more than eight hours having passed, the fundamental trend of the results hasn't changed much.

Observers say, "Stay away from 400, now it's going to be tough." Even if BJP is ahead in some seats, the party's pride will be at stake. Despite over eight hours passing since the counting began, the main trend of the results hasn't changed much.

Observers say, "Stay away from 400, now it's going to be tough." Even if BJP is ahead in some seats, the party's pride will be at stake. Even though BJP is ahead in some seats, it's much less than the required majority of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. According to the published results so far, the party is ahead in 241 seats, far less than the party and the Prime Minister's set target.

BJP won 303 seats independently in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 282 seats in 2014. Congress won 52 seats in 2019 and 44 seats in 2014. Now, the wave of victory seems to be returning to Congress. The party is ahead in 99 seats so far. Together, they are leading in 231 seats.

If the single-party majority is not achieved, the BJP will have to walk the path of coalition government. In that case, the smaller parties will play a crucial role. In a coalition government, BJP won't be able to make decisions unilaterally in Parliament.